Morning Tiebreak: Indian Wells Early Rounds

Second Serve Location, Drop Shots, and more, sponsored by Pepsi (jk)

Mar 11, 2025

7 things I liked (shoutout Zach Lowe) from the first few rounds of Indian Wells aka Tennis Paradise aka The Fifth Slam aka IW aka IWWGKTA (okay I made this one up).

Belinda Bencic, straight down the middle

In a topsy-turvy tilt ‘tween two tip-top tennis titans, Belinda Bencic bested Amanda Anisimova in the Alliteration Open 6:4 6:7 6:1. Bencic’s very balanced game ultimately prevailed against Anisimova’s power in the 3rd set, largely thanks to some poorly timed double faults and loose errors from Anisimova. However, one thing Bencic did do well was not give Anisimova the opportunity to showcase her shotmaking talent, which she did by hitting up the middle.

(There’s a Switzerland joke in here somewhere but unfortunately I am not funny enough to stick that landing)

Hitting the ball up the middle has a number of advantages

The ball clears the net at the lowest point
The ball is traveling the shortest possible distance to the other side of the court (assuming you are also hitting the ball from the middle)
It forces your opponent to move their body out of the way before hitting the ball (whereas in most cases, players are moving towards a ball as part of their swing)
It eliminates short angle shots from the opponent
It starts a game of chicken between you and the opponent: who will blink and try to change direction first?

In this point, Anisimova (far court) blinks first, trying to go for the sidelines and sending it wide:

On serve, Bencic also threw in a healthy dose of body serves down the middle of the service box. Allowing Anisimova to hit a return at full extension is a frightening prospect, and Bencic (far court) was able to nullify that threat by jamming her on a number of occasions:

Here’s another time where Bencic (far court) forced Anisimova to get out of the way in order to hit a return. Anisimova does well to get a return back in play, but Bencic has the advantage in this point now. Ultimately Bencic hits an aggressive forehand into the net, but she earned that opportunity with the body serve:

Putting everything together, here’s Bencic hitting a body serve and then proceeding to hit the serve plus-one down the middle, and letting Anisimova try a little too hard and hit her response long.

Bencic is now into the Round of 16 after a straight sets victory over Diana Shnaider, where she will play 3rd seed Coco Gauff.

A Tale of Two Draws

Let’s play a game, called “ATP or WTA?”

Last 16 A: 5 Grand Slam champions, 4 Grand Slam finalists, 1 Gold medalist, 1 Silver Medalist, 2 Slam Semifinalists, 1 Masters 1000 finalist, 1 Slam Quarterfinalist, 1 player reaching their personal best at a Masters 1000 so far

Last 16 B: 2 Slam Champions, 2 Slam Finalists, 1 Tour Finals winner, 2 Tour Finals participants, 3 Slam Semifinalists, 1 250 Winner, 5 players reaching their personal best at a Master 1000 so far

The 5 Grand Slam Champions in Draw A probably tipped off that it was the WTA draw, but the fact remains that we do not often associate the WTA side of the tournament as the one with more established players, and the ATP with more chaos.

Both draws have very compelling narratives: the WTA draw, with its proven performers, may have the higher floor in terms of high quality matches (Rybakina v Andreeva, Svitolina v Pegula, Zheng v Kostyuk, Muchová v Świątek, Gauff v Bencic, Vekić v Keys). The ATP draw, with so many players reaching new heights, could produce some fireworks, but potentially also some duds, as many of the more established players are playing each other for a spot in the Quarters (Rune v Tsitsipas, Paul v Medvedev, Draper v Fritz, Dimitrov v Alcaraz).

There’s something for everyone in the home stretch of the tournament, and I’m so excited to see how it unfolds.

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Mirra Andreeva, Running it Back

There is so much to love about Mirra Andreeva’s game - her amazing court coverage, her elite return game, her rapidly improving serve (regularly touching 110+mph on first serve at Indian Wells), and a more counterpunching style that is a fun counterweight to the modern power game of the WTA. I wanted to highlight another thing she does really well: drop shots, and incorporating them organically into her overall game plan.

Andreeva faced fellow rising star Clara Tauson in the Round of 32, the second time in less than 3 weeks the two have played. In their previous match, a 7:6 6:1 victory for Andreeva in the Dubai WTA1000 Finals, Andreeva was able to exploit Tauson’s below-average movement by changing directions, going down the line aggressively, and running Tauson around the court.

Andreeva (near court) was able to carry out a similar strategy against Tauson at Indian Wells, not only stretching Tauson laterally but also North-South as well:

Andreeva’s (near court) patience really shines in her use of the drop shot, waiting until she has the best court position advantage (her on top of the baseline, Tauson standing almost on top of the “Indian Wells” sign) to hit the shot.

Andreeva (far court) is also very comfortable hitting her drop shot at a high contact point, hitting this forehand drop shot starting almost at her shoulder, and chopping down on it rather than hitting it with an arc like most drop shots.

Tauson (far court), by contrast, hits a drop shot more opportunistically, and not with the same intention and thoughtfulness. It looks like she makes her mind up at the last second, when she sees that Andreeva’s return hits the net tape and she has more time to plan out her shot. This is a valid strategy; after all, if you don’t know when you plan to hit a drop shot, your opponents certainly won’t. However, it is way harder to execute, and Tauson sails hers a fraction wide of the sideline:

Andreeva seems to favor the forehand cross-court drop shot for now, but as with her serve, the rest of her drop shot arsenal will surely develop at a rapid pace.

This is a Yosuke Watanuki Fan Account Now

I am so on board with everything Yosuke Watanuki does, as is everyone else in the tennis world. There is a recklessness to his game right now, like he’s playing with house money. He sort of is: he had to use a protected ranking (don’t ask me to explain this please) to even have the chance to get into qualifying. Now he’s into the last 16, playing against another aggressive giant-killer in Tallon Griekspoor.

There are so many things I could point to about Watanuki’s game (one of his 47 winners against Tiafoe would be a good place to start), but I am going to stick to one thing (which honestly isn’t even the most important): Watanuki’s scissor kick backhand return. Early readers of Semi-Western will remember my infatuation with the scissor kick, and I am here to tell you the love still remains.

Here is Watanuki (near court) elevating to return a kick serve deep to Tiafoe’s feet, and then ripping a forehand winner:

Here’s another one (I only clipped the return because THAT’S ALL I CARE ABOUT)

For good measure, here’s one more at match point:

Protect this man (and his knees) at all cost

PROTECT HIM:

This moment is only made better by Gill Gross’ commentary: “He’s got the Pepsi Flowing, he’s got the crowd going”

Sonay Kartal - We’re gonna play one song and one song only

The letters (LL) are attached to Sonay Kartal’s name on the scoreboard at Indian Wells. LL stands for Lucky Loser, someone who lost in the last round of Qualifying but was granted an entry into the Main Draw anyway because of an injury or withdrawal from another Main Draw player. It feels a little mean to have that title emblazoned on a player; a less generous interpretation would be that they only got to stay in the tournament (and accrue valuable rankings points and prize money) on a technicality. Kartal, however, is showing us another interpretation: women’s tennis is so deep that someone ranked 80 in the world and lost in Qualifying still has the quality and game to make it to the last 16.

Kartal’s game is predicated on roadrunner defense, heavy looping groundstrokes, and the occasional change of pace with the backhand slice. In many ways her style of play is more akin to a South American male clay court player, which is not an archetype that is super common on the WTA (Iga Świątek sort of falls into this category too, but with way more power). On the slow, high bouncing Indian Wells courts, this style is rewarded.

Against Polina Kudermetova in the Round of 32, another aspect of Kartal’s game was the star: the kick serve on her second serve. Kartal won 80% (20/25) of her second serve points, which is an insane number; for reference, her 2024 season average was around 44%, and Iga Świątek led all tour regulars at 55%.

The most surprising thing: Kartal pretty much exclusively to Kudermetova’s backhand. Here’s a supercut of the first 16 of Kartal’s second serves (which gets us through the first set and the first few service games of the second).

She hits twelve straight second serves to Kudermetova’s backhand before finally hitting one into the middle of the box that Kudermetova takes as a forehand. My personal opinion is that she was still looking for the backhand on that serve, but got tight and missed her target.

So why was Kartal so predictable with the second serve location, and why did it work? After all, second serve predictability has been cited as a reason for Alcaraz losing in the past.

The difference here is that as predictable as Kartal’s second serve location was, Kudermetova’s second serve return was just as predictable. Kudermetova is not really bothered by the high bounce of the kick serve, and all of her returns had plenty of pace on them, but she almost always hit them back to Kartal’s backhand. This basically meant that the first three shots of a Kartal second serve point were preordained: kick serve to Kudermetova’s backhand, return to Kartal’s backhand, backhand either cross court or up the middle back to Kudermetova. Predictability played into Kartal’s game; she knew she needed to play defense after her second serve, but the job is made way easier because she knew where the next ball was going. All she needed to do was handle the pace, which she is very comfortable doing.

Kartal’s Cinderella run may be coming to an end in the last 16, as she plays the 1 Seed Aryna Sabalenka. Predictable second serves are unlikely to work against Sabalenka, whose backhand has plenty of attacking venom, and hit either corner from any part of the court. That said, sometimes the best tactic is the simplest one: do one thing, and if it works, keep doing the same thing until your opponent shows they can stop it.

Older, but still Athletic Gentlemen doing Athletic Things

The funniest thing to me about the Dimitrov v Monfils match is that after epic points, you would sometimes find them doing stuff that regular 30-somethings with joint pain might do.

Here’s Dimitrov, after falling down and hitting a volley winner on all fours, taking a beat and lying on the ground: