We Got Next(Gen), Part I
Checking in on Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien at the Australian Open
The 2025 Australian Open was a Debutante Ball of sorts for the 2024 NextGen cohort, with a hard-fought loss (Basavareddy), several notable upsets (Fonseca, Menšík), and two second week appearances (Michelsen, Tien). So how did the NextGen do? We won’t be covering every NextGen player, so apologies in advance to Jerry Shang (who had to retire from his first round match), Arthur Fils (who’s already firmly in the top 25), and Luca Van Assche (who did not take part in this year’s AO).
In Part I, we cover Alex Michelsen and Learner Tien
Alex Michelsen, Subverting Expectations
Live Ranking (as of Jan 22nd): 36
AO25 Performance: R4 (lost to (8) De Minaur in 3)
Notable Tournament Wins: (11) Tsitsipas, (19) Khachanov
Nationality-based tennis stereotypes are hard to shake; ask a tennis fan to describe how a 6’4 American’s play style, most would say something along the lines of “Big Serve, Big Forehand, not much else”. Alex Michelsen is not the stereotype.
Michelsen combines a decent serve (not overpowering, but well placed), with above average power on the groundstrokes, and adequate levels of athleticism (much improved since this showing at the 2023 NextGen Finals). If I stopped there, you wouldn’t think that’s exactly a recipe for a Round of 16 run at a Grand Slam.
What Michelsen does so well is hit consistent deep groundstrokes that are difficult to attack, and combine that with the ability to redirect shots off both the forehand and backhand. Most players are far more comfortable redirecting shots off their forehand, but Michelsen, as a natural left hander, is able to use his left hand to time the ball exceptionally well and reorient the rally in his favor.
Against Tsitsipas (red shorts), this meant neutralizing his forehand (his favored shot), and redirecting pace to his backhand (his shakier shot). Here’s Michelsen taking Tsitsipas’ best punch on the cross-court forehand, and instead of sending it back cross-court, he’s able to change direction on it to get a more favorable pattern (backhand to backhand):
Off of a big Tsitsipas first serve, Michelsen is able to pull the return to the Tsitsipas backhand. Tsitsipas manages to actually hit a really offensive backhand that Michelsen has to block back, which Tsitsipas runs around and attacks with his forehand. Again, Michelsen is completely unfazed by this, and sends his forehand straight back where it came, forcing Tsitsipas (who was already moving in anticipation of Michelsen hitting it cross court) to run back into the backhand corner and hit a defensive shot that lands just out:
Michelsen’s ability to mess with Tsitsipas’ backhand and force predictable responses means he can exploit those responses. Here, Michelsen gets into another rally where he takes his forehand down the line to Tsitsipas’ backhand, which invites a short slice. Michelsen then plays a short slice back to Tsitsipas’ backhand, which Tsitsipas rips right down the middle. Tsitsipas doesn’t have enough confidence ins his backhand to hit it down the line (the ball is bouncing low, and he has to lift it above the highest part of the net if he goes down the line), but by hitting it in the middle with pace, he leaves himself exposed to Michelsen redirecting deep to his forehand. This is exactly what Michelsen does, and it forces Tsitsipas to hit a defensive forehand going backwards. Michelsen now controls the point, and hits a deft drop shot to go up a break point.
Michelsen’s 3rd round match against Karen Khachanov presents a different challenge altogether: Khachanov hits big off both the forehand and backhand, so he doesn’t necessarily need to protect one side more than the other. However, Khachanov is a player that loves rhythm and consistency: he thrives when the exchanges are one pace, and going in one direction. The ideal match for Khachanov is if all the rallies could be set to the beat of a metronome.
Michelsen (in the red) clearly knows this, because his approach to playing Khachanov is to give him very little of what he likes; here’s a point where Michelsen is making Khachanov play a different shot, from different parts of the court, on every single ball. Khachanov goes from hitting his serve plus one off his back foot, to cutting off a slow ball going to his forehand side, to hitting a forehand off his back foot again in the middle of the court, then finally having to hit a slice backhand on the stretch that Michelsen finishes off at the net.
Michelsen was constantly subverting Khachanov’s expectations with unexpected shots, hit with great margin. In the point below, Khachanov plays every ball the “right” way, hitting the ball back cross court or up the middle and trying to keep the rally neutral. When Khachanov hits a forehand cross court that has pretty good width, he expects Michelsen to hit a neutral ball back cross court. Michelsen instead catches Khachanov leaning the wrong way, and flattens a ball down the line. Normally a ball down the line would be a risky choice, but Michelsen hits it to such a big target (the ball lands probably more than 5 feet away from the baseline and singles sideline).
Michelsen almost never lets Khachanov hit the same shot more than twice. Here, Khachanov gets two cross court backhands before Michelsen sends it the other way, and finishes the point off with a drop shot.
Coming to net was also a significant part of Michelsen’s strategy: over a fifth of the points Michelsen won in the match were won at the net (22/97). Part of the success comes from knowing when to come to net; at Deuce on Khachanov’s 2nd serve, Khachanov is most likely expecting that he’ll have to neutralize an aggressive attack from Michelsen, and grind the point out from the baseline. Michelsen does not accept this, and immediately rushes the net off his return, taking all of Khachanov’s time away:
Michelsen’s run in the AO came to an end in the following round, with a straight sets loss to hometown favorite Alex De Minaur. Against one of the best returners on tour, the serve could not do enough damage. It also appeared that his movement was still a little compromised after having to take a medical timeout in the Khachanov match for a right hip issue, so he rarely bothered De Minaur’s service games. And against one of the fastest players on tour, Michelsen had to go for so much more.
Watch as Michelsen hits a great approach shot to De Minaur’s backhand, which De Minaur gets to with no issue, and hits a shot that jams Michelsen slightly as he approaches to net. De Minaur dispatches that with a well placed passing shot.
The very next point, Michelsen hits a great down the line forehand that forces a short reply from De Minaur. Michelsen now has a short ball that he can hit with his forehand, but the threat of De Minaur’s speed makes him choose a very small target, which he ends up missing.
Michelsen’s game as it currently stands is already on a Top-20 trajectory; his shot selection, tactical awareness, and abilities off the backhand are proof of that. His match against De Minaur suggests that how high up the rankings he’ll go may depend on how much more he can extract out of his serve, and how much more improvement can he make on his fitness and athleticism.
Learner Tien, Playing Chess
Live Ranking (as of Jan 22nd): 80
AO25 Performance: R4 (lost to Sonego in 4)
Notable Tournament Wins: (5) Medvedev
Learner Tien’s rise through the Futures and Challengers circuit has been meteoric, and he’s done so with a style that defies categorization. Prominent Tennis Youtuber (and top 300 player) Karue Sell calls him “Lefty Medvedev”, which is a pretty accurate summary: he plays a patient, physical game that invites the other player to try (and often fail) to take things into their own hands.
When he matched up against the actual Medvedev in the 2nd round, most of us probably thought “surely there’s no way he can out-Medvedev the original”. We were wrong.
Tien (in all red) showed a lot of variety in his shots, particularly in neutral and offensive situations. Here, he plays with different spins and heights so that Medvedev has to keep hitting different types of shots from different parts of the court, and at contact points (low off a slice, high at his shoulder, lunging to his side, stepping forward, off his back foot). This unpredictability earns Tien a defensive lob that he puts away for an overhead.
Tien also seems to be keenly aware of what phase of the point he is in at all times. In this long baseline rally, he is never rushing to initiate offense, and is happy to stay in a neutral exchange until the right opportunity comes. In the middle of the point, Medvedev sets a trap by hitting a low, slow, backhand that lands short. Many players would see this as an opportunity to attack and come to net, but that would likely be an approach shot that is hit below the level of the net, meaning it has to rise and then fall, giving Medvedev plenty of time to get to the ball and hit a passing shot. Tien does not take the bait, and slices deep into the middle of the court to reset the rally. Eventually, Tien hits another slice down the line to Medvedev’s backhand that forces Medvedev to hit the ball up, and cross court to Tien’s forehand, and he takes this opportunity to take control of the point.
Tien’s used the slice liberally on both his forehand and backhand side, which forced Medvedev to have to generate all of his own pace (not something he likes to do). Here is another extended rally where Tien shows his composure in a critical point in the match, and his willingness to extend the point and make Medvedev create his own offense ultimately led to an error from the world #5.
More on Tien’s situational awareness: he’s quick to recognize when he’s no longer on offense, and has to switch to staying in the point. In the middle of (yet another) long rally, Tien has the chance to go on offense with his forehand. However, Medvedev defends well, and Tien realizes that the moment has passed, instead of trying to press on and go for it. Ultimately, Tien changes tact, extends the point yet again, and Medvedev becomes the impatient one, going after a forehand that ends up in the net.
One thing about getting into a battle of attrition with Medvedev is that a player has to have the fitness and movement to be able to handle the lung-busting rallies for multiple hours. Tien, despite being only 19, proved that he was able to physically outlast the very fit Medvedev over 5 sets. Here’s a point near the end of the 5th set Super Tiebreaker, where Tien looks like he’s moving just as well as he did in the beginning of the match. Medvedev is forced to do so much to try to hit through Tien, and ultimately makes an error trying to pull Tien wider off the court.
The rest of Tien’s tournament was also a bit of a roller coaster; in his next match, Tien had to play another unconventional opponent: rapper, coffee enthusiast, and all-around mad lad Corentin Moutet. Moutet has some of the most varied shotmaking on tour, mixing in slices, drop shots, and all manner of unconventional shots. He’s also one of the best and most willing defenders on tour, the tennis equivalent of a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu practitioner pulling guard. Tien manages to avoid getting caught up in Moutet’s hurricane of dark arts, and uses his rally tolerance and court coverage to advance in straights. His run ended with Lorenzo “NextGen Party Pooper” Sonego, as he ultimately lost in four sets and was clearly very physically compromised.
With his standout performance in Melbourne, Tien has shown that he will likely be a mainstay of ATP Tour-Level tournaments in 2025, and won’t have to grind it out in the lower level tournaments. His lack of firepower on his serve (His 1st Serve average barely reached 100mph), and groundstrokes are a question mark, as it sort of forces him to always win points the hard way. That being said, his performances on slower surfaces like Indian Wells and all the Clay tournaments will be interesting to watch, as his results in 2024 have come predominantly on hard courts, but his movement should translate well to Clay, and his lack of serve speed will be mitigated.